Frank Election Predictions

Posted on November 3, 2008 11:09 am

I don’t really know stuff, but I feel it’s my duty as a blogger to make a prediction for the election tomorrow.

Well, if Obama has over 50% of the vote (as most polls are showing) then all the close states break his way and its a big blowout for him. If most of the polls are crap — which isn’t that unlikely — and he’s below 50%, the undecideds will break McCain’s way and he can squeak this out. Since the media has basically coronated Obama and this being such a horrible year for Republicans, you can treat Obama as the incumbent which means anyone undecided basically is basically unsold on Obama and will either vote for McCain or not vote.

So my prediction: The polls are crap, McCain will get over 50% of the popular vote, but Obama will win in the electoral college. Here’s why I say this: I haven’t seen anyone else make this prediction, so if it happens, then I’ll get all the credit as being the only one to see it coming. Everyone will be like, “Frank, you’re so smart! Here’s free money!” Also, that’s what I thought was going to happen in 2000 when things actually went the opposite way. Wouldn’t mind the opposite way again.

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32 Responses to “Frank Election Predictions”

  1. MarkoMancuso says:

    McCain wins 293-245. It’ll be a repeat of 2004, except McCain will trade New Mexico and Colorado for Pennsylvania.

    I just get the feeling McCain will win here in PA. Kerry didn’t win by much, and I think Obama will lose a lot of votes that went for Kerry.

    Wishful thinking? Yeah, probably. But the conventional wisdom and the BS polls can kiss my rear. I’m going with my gut.

    P.S. When you run “Obama” through the spell check on MS Word, it asks if you meant “Osama”.

    Coincidence? I think not!

  2. Reality intrudes says:

    Given your SAT scores, I’m going with your prediction.

    (Yes, We are all very impressed down here I can tell you!)

  3. Jimmy says:

    Frank is a prognosticating risk taker! Staking out his turf, he boldly goes where no blogger has gone before. Favoring statistical outliers over sure bets, he once again proves that 5 out of 4 engineers have problems with statistics.

    And somehow, he’s still trying to make laugh through all of this.

  4. kansasfarmboy says:

    Using the yahoo map, flip ever state that Obama doesn’t lead by 5 and McCain has 265. 5 shy of a win. It will come down to Colorado (5.5%), Pennsylvania (7.6%) and (WHAT?) Minnesota(9.8%).

    It will be close and you can expect a “No Mandate” claim from the press if McCain wins.

  5. jacksmith says:

    I see you all have not lost your fight :

    GOOD! Because we have a lot to do. You! (the American people) are going to have to take back control of your elected government at every level, and set your government back on the right path of service to you, and the greater good of the World.

    Barack Obama and the democrats are your best hope of doing that now. Tell your family, friends, and everyone you know to support them as best they can. Because the Bush McCain vote fraud, vote cheating, vote buying, vote manipulation machine is already hard at work to cheat you again. And we all know what a disaster that has been the past 8 years of Bush McCain.

    Barack Obama and the democrats will need all the power you can give them at every level of government (Federal, State, County, and local City elected governments). Obama and the democrats will have an enormous mess to fix for the American people, and the rest of the World. A mess caused by the corrupt Bush McCain administration.

    You see, starting back in 2000, and before 911, it was mostly the Republican governors, Republican legislatures, and county elected Republican officials that conspired with the corrupt Bush McCain administration to raise college, and university tuitions by the fastest, and highest rate increases in American history. Some state tuitions went up by as much as a WHOPPING! 30% in one year.

    The reason the Bush McCain administration did this was to force struggling working class kids into the military to pay for the sudden jump in tuition. Which was forced on them by the corrupt Bush McCain administration, and their corrupt Republican Governors, and republican controlled state legislatures.

    See, Bush McCain had plans to get us into all these immoral, foolish, criminal, and unnecessary wars from the start. So they could use these wars to seize power, and later to get reelected. But, for their evil plan to work they needed more volunteer soldiers struggling to pay for an education whose blood they could spill to help them seize more power. Remember Bush McCain’s “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!” theatrics.

    The exploitation, and lost lives of these finest Americans is despicable, disgusting, immoral, corrupt and criminal. And it makes me SICK, and ANGRY!

    You will have to vote for Obama, and the democrats in overwhelming numbers to overcome the Bush McCain vote fraud machine. Vote early if you can. Then help your fellow Americans cast their votes on through election day. Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it. Because it does. You will not survive 4 more years of “Let Them Eat Cake” Bush McCain, and their republican allies.

    Just look at the mess we have now.

    You can fix this mess with your votes for Obama, and the democrats. But you must continue to surge forward for Barack Obama, and the democrats, and for your-selves most of all. The children, and the World are counting on us.

    It’s in your hands now. And I know you will get it done.

    God bless all of you.

    JACK SMITH – WORKING CLASS… :-)

  6. DesertElephant says:

    Man, that was the best impersonation of an unhinged, separated from Reality Leftist I’ve ever seen! Kudos Jack. Just well done. I mean, totally ignoring all the dead and Felons voting Democrat, and not even mentioning all the ACORN voter fraud for Obama was inspired. You almost had us. We almost bought that you were a drooling, retarded simpleton with no idea how to tell your ass from your elbow. Well played sir. Well played.

  7. MarkoMancuso says:

    I think that might have been Axelrod himself.

  8. Herpules says:

    Jack Smith don’t know Jack Schitt.

    Someone should introduce them.

  9. Tommy the Towelhead says:

    The media didn’t coronate Obama, but they did crown him. I wish they would coronate him, because that involves a coroner.

  10. PaleoMedic says:

    I like the generous use of CAPITAL LETTERS, in that there little essay. It’s very effective in flagging the fact that here we have yet another tired screed that SERVES TO WARN ME to stop reading and move on to the more substantive and humorous comments. LOUD NOISES!!

    [And why can't people who have nothing to say say it briefly? Who has time to read all that? -Ed.]

  11. Jimmy says:

    Where would we be without a troll like that to remind us of what we’re up against?

    I had a similar experience with a sister over the weekend… much too close to home. Very depressing.

  12. cadet says:

    mccain is going to get his ass handed to him — it will be an early night, because he’ll lose virginia, and then we will know he is screwed and can go to sleep

    that’s my prediction anyway

  13. MarkoMancuso says:

    Thanks for the prediction, Cadet Eeyore.

    *Now this is freakin’ funny — most commentators don’t make me laugh, but this is funny. Cadet

  14. Socrates H. Obummer says:

    I predict that the socialist will lose. Unfortunately, that means the Marxist will be President.

    [ducks]

  15. hansen says:

    looks like the loonie tunes wingers found us – good thing we just skip over their dribble as they try not to trip over
    Wright/Ayers/Flager/Farrakhan/ACORN . . . .

  16. Jimmy says:

    This is why Basil characterized this as a “Bizarro World.”

    Scary
    Upsetting
    Depressing
    Ominous
    Foreboding
    Unpredictable
    A game changer

    And I’m talking about McCain there.

    For Obama, I’m dead meat.

  17. calbear says:

    Frank keeps stealing my ideas…. Yes, I thought that particular split was rather likely, but the folks at Hot Air – especially Allahpundit – seem to disagree: http://hotair.com/archives/2008/10/30/hot-air-poll-whos-going-to-win/

    I think you might get a surprising number of late-breakers for Obama. The Republican meme that Obama is a risk is working… but many undecideds seems to be saying that it’s a risk they’re willing to take.

  18. Mateo R says:

    Some people sound like there’s going to be an Obama vs McCain football game. Well I hope not McCain’s too old to play football.

  19. PammyV says:

    Would someone just tell me if I need to buy whisky or champagne? Drown my sorrows or celebrate. I’m west coast, so I can start at a reasonable hour.

  20. Jimmy says:

    Yes, you need to buy whiskey AND champagne. Pick me up some Corona and Scotch while you’re at it, okay?

  21. Room 237 says:

    My guess in 2004 was that Kerry would win Ohio in a squeaker, with the result that Bush won the popular vote but Kerry the election.

    This time, I really WANT to believe that McCain will pull it out. In some ways, this is resembling the 1970 and 1992 UK General Elections. But my head tells me it will be an early night and I go to bed hearing the words “President Elect Obama”

  22. Room 237 says:

    As for drinks, my drink of choice is the “Obama Martini” — kool aid and Belvedere. The only problem with the Obama martini is after you make it, the government takes most of it away and gives it to someone else, so you either have to drink it real fast or nip around teh corner and drink it when no one is looking.

  23. 5 of 7 says:

    Jack Smith Isn’t a troll. I can tell because he didn’t begin his comment with the assertion that he was a life-long conservative Republican, he used proper sentence structure and spell check,
    and he didn’t end with a demand that we perform physically impossible biological acts upon ourselves. It was a pretty good glimpse into Bizarro world, however.

  24. HCG says:

    #3 Jimmy – There is a reason engineers have issues with Probability and Statistics. Prob/Stats is a very difficult course…. but only because it is so incredibly boring. They lull you to sleep with a full week of “Every time you toss a coin there is a 50% chance of it coming up heads, regardless of past results. You could get 50 heads in a row, and the probability of the next toss being heads is still 50%! Isn’t that exciting?!?”.

    I started a new job in June, and they actually want me to perform statistical analysis on some of our measurements. I brain dumped that BS 20 years ago. Oops. :(

  25. HCG says:

    #5 Jackhole had a really ominous sentence in that diatribe, that makes me wonder if he has insider knowledge about BHO’s “civilian national security force”. Jackhole wrote, “Vote for Obama, and the democrats like your life, and the lives of your loved ones depends on it.”
    Here is BHO unveiling his “civilian national security force”, with his trademark lack of specifics. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwaAVJITx1Y

  26. Writer says:

    Conservatives and Liberals differ on many levels.
    Liberals are pessimists that see the United States as the worst country in the world because it does not always favor their preferred causes. They seek out utopian ideals, believing they are attainable.
    Conservatives are optimists. Looking at the United States they note how it is the freest country in the world with the highest standard of living ever attained. Improvements could be made, but should be approached cautiously to avoid unseen repercussions.
    Liberals view minor imperfections taken out of proportion, and they know they could do better.
    Conservatives know that it is not perfect, but since man is not perfect, his creations can never be.
    Liberals like to attempt new ideas on the off chance that they will do something better.
    Conservatives want to analyze a new option to identify unintended consequences of an action prior to acting.
    Liberals want to “feel” good and depend on emotions to justify their actions. If an action is logically bad, but feels good, they will continue the action despite the obvious secondary problems. They will continue these actions, counting on fixing the secondary effects later.
    Conservatives want a logical answer that minimizes the bad secondary effects. If none is available, then the action should be avoided if the secondary effects would outweigh the primary good.
    Liberals have little use for logic if it does not support their view.
    Conservatives use logic to consider alternative ideas.
    Liberals imply that Conservatives who oppose them are unimaginative and evil.
    Conservatives recognize there is real evil in the world that they must guard against.
    Liberals believe each new crisis is unique.
    Conservatives believe most crises are predictable from historical precedents.
    Liberals view this world as a basically decent place, except the U.S. Everyone should be able to hold hands and work out differences.
    Conservatives view this world as a basically decent place, once you have accounted for barbarism and barbaric individuals that cannot be reasoned with.
    Liberals can become outraged, but are incapable of sustaining it.
    Conservatives have a long memory where slights are concerned.
    Liberals view that laws are to be broken.
    Conservatives view that laws are to be obeyed.
    i.e. In short, the Liberals are children who have a tendency to eat paste and run with knives. Unfortunately, they always miss with the knives when they fall.
    Lets change the name from the Democrapic Party, to the Kindergarten Party.

  27. 27 Reader says:

    #26 Writer – very well put -I 2nd the motion

  28. John says:

    In short, the Liberals are children who have a tendency to eat paste and run with knives. Unfortunately, they always miss with the knives when they fall. – The greatest tragedy in life…

    Very nicely written by the way.

    And just as a side note, Osama (Sorry I’m being a hard headed conservative but my spell check automatically changed it and i couldn’t bring myself to fix it.) talks so much about his tax reform policy to spread the wealth and create ‘economical justice’ yet takes no action on it in his campaign. He did so well raising money for his campaigning I motion we practice his policies. Poor John McCain was not fortunate enough to find millions of extra dollars to run his campaign, let us take some of Obama’s funds and give to McCain.

  29. 27 Reader says:

    #28 John – thats a good point on the money raised by ‘Osama’ might explain why he was in other countries on his campain rally. Can a presidentail canidate receive funds from foriegn ‘investors’ to run for president? — pretty sick/sad if this is the case –

  30. I'm a PC says:

    1. Create a folder on your Desktop.
    2. Name the new folder “Obama.”
    3. Right-click on the folder named “Obama” and drag it to the Recycle Bin.
    4. Open the Recycle Bin.
    5. Empty the Recycle Bin.
    6. “Are you sure you want to delete ‘Obama’?
    7. Answer “Yes”!
    8. Buy a new gun in honor of Vice President Palin.

  31. Niel_J says:

    Room 237- My drink- the Double-edged sword= Tabasco + Tequila one hurts your stomach, the other just hurts… On second thought, I chould name it the Obama/Biden.

    We can get through these 4 years. Be Vigilant. Please make that (“Be Vigilant”) a popular thing.

  32. IMAO » Blog Archive » What Was I Blogging in 2008? links:

    [...] like in 2008 when it was more certain we’d get a drubbing, so here’s what I wrote as my prediction they day before Election Day. I also took one last stab at sinking the Barack Obama candidacy. And on Election Day, I posted [...]

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