Obama’s Ace In The Hole
As Obama’s approval rating continues to sink, things are looking better and better for whoever gets the Republican nomination in 2012.
In some head-to-head polls, some Republicans beat Obama, while others are within the margin of error, statistically tied with the president.
Things are looking good for Obama being a one-termer, right?
Well, not so fast.
Obama has an Ace in the Hole. And it just might be you.
You see, Obama and the Democrats are counting on you sitting this election out. Why would you do that? Because you aren’t happy with the eventual GOP candidate.
Now, sure, it’s about a year until the GOP convention. But the process to pick the candidate is already underway. In fact, Tim Pawlenty has already dropped out of the race.
The leading candidates, if you believe the polls, are Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, and Ron Paul. And, then there’s Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Thaddeus McCotter, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Buddy Roemer, and Gary Johnson.
Then there’s about Fred Karger, Andy Martin, Tom Miller and Vern Weunsche.
Oh, and don’t forget The Rent Is Too Damn High Guy, Jimmy McMillan.
And still maybe Sarah Palin and John Bolton.
Some of the candidates don’t draw much attention. But some that do draw a lot of passion. Several of the Gary Johnson or Ron Paul (RONPAUL!!1!!!11!!!) supporters will not vote for anyone else NOMATTERWHAT!!!1!!
And others say there’s no way they’d vote for someone like Newt Gingrich or Jon Huntsman. Or Sarah Palin.
Well, unless the Republicans nominate a committee to run in 2012, only one of these will be the nominee. And there will be some very unhappy Republicans and some very unhappy conservatives. And some unhappy libertarians. And some unhappy liberaltarians.
And that’s Obama’s Ace In The Hole: Republican-leaning voters feeling they have a bad hand.
Look at it like a poker game. Say, five-card stud. Sure, nobody plays that anymore, but it’s one of the simplest to use as an analogy, so there you go.
After the cards are dealt, Obama is holding this hand:
Ace of Clubs
Jack of Clubs
Three of Hearts
Two of Diamonds
Hole Card
You have this hand:
Seven of Diamonds
Eight of Diamonds
Nine of Diamonds
Ten of Diamonds
And your hole card: 10 of Spades
You’ve got a pair of tens. Not a great hand, but potentially a winning hand. If Obama has an Ace in the hole — or a Jack in the hole — he wins. Anything else, and you win.
What Obama is counting on is you being unhappy with the GOP candidate and not showing up at the polls. That’s his Ace in the Hole. Or Jack in the Hole.
Now, a lot of you are going to bitch, moan, and complain about whoever gets the nomination. Like I have several times in my life. But, I went out and voted for the guy, because the alternative was worse. And, each time, history has proven me right. That is, since I’ve been voting (1976) the Republican who won was better than the Democrat who lost. And the Republican who lost would have been better than the Democrat who won.
Don’t be Obama’s Ace in the Hole. Or Jack in the Hole.
Prevent that situation by working like the Dickens for your candidate. Then, whoever wins, work like the Dickens for that candidate, too.
Don’t let a bunch of Ace-Holes … or Jack-Holes … mess up the next election, like they did in 2008.
Don’t be an Ace-Hole.
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August 31st, 2011 at 8:21 am
great blog, apathy damaged this nation and apathy can kill this nation the rest of the way
August 31st, 2011 at 8:26 am
You lost me on this one. A poker analogy with no mention of beer? I’ll probably need a drink after the elections regardless of who wins.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:37 am
Probably several.
August 31st, 2011 at 8:59 am
Ok, I listened to Perry yesterday in the car on Hannity’s show (what a terrible show…everyone screaming at each other)…anyway I can probably go with Perry. Bachmann is my candidate of choice. Palin or Bolton would be Awesome but I will NOT vote for Romney!!!
August 31st, 2011 at 9:05 am
The republicans have a great chance of luring me over to vote for them if they run a great candidate.
Another mcCain and I stay independent. It can no longer be a choice of 40mph vs 90mph, we are going the wrong direction.
I am not going to vote for another Nixon or McCain or Bush. I know some of you will be thinking “what about the supreme court?” When have we ever gotten change in the right direction from the supreme court? They have been a problem since Dred Scott. Its not like they are going to suddenly read the commerce clause and start dismantling things.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:05 am
Normally, we get to choose between sucky and less sucky. This election gives us a new and exciting choice. We get to choose between potentially sucky and a good prison-style poundin’ without so much as a how-dee-do. Personally, I wasn’t so hot on the spectre of a prison-style poundin’ the last go around, but at least I thought it’d be the minimum security prison type of poundin’. We got the maximum security gang unit kind of poundin’, and I’ve grown sorely tired of it.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:16 am
Question for the voters of conscience: Would you recommend that liberal Republicans, conservative Democrats and Independents follow your example and sit out the election if the nominee is too conservative for them? Or is compromise something asked only of conservatives?
August 31st, 2011 at 9:30 am
I’m not saying it’s fair. I’m saying it’s about not letting Obama win.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:31 am
I won’t vote for Perry or Bachman just like I wouldn’t vote for Huckabee, for the same reason. The rest of the field I’m not sure about except for Gov. Palin. I’m pretty sure I’d vote for her. I won’t vote for Obama or Hillary if she runs either but I won’t vote for the John Edwards clone or Ms Backman.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:32 am
If any one of the five sane people left on the supreme court die or retire Obama will put another libtard on it and thus guarantee his influence long after he has left the presidency. For this reason alone I will vote for whoever the Republican candidate is…including Romney. In addition I don’t want to see another four years of Napolitano, or Holder.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:42 am
I’m pretty sure McCain would have been much worse than Obama. There isn’t much difference between them on economic policy: both supported TARP. On foreign policy both love multiple wars in the Middle East. McCain supported Obama’s attack on Libya in violation of the Constitution. McCain probably would have done the same de-facto Amnesty that Obama just did. On Global Warming, both are aligned.
The difference between the two is that we get to blame the democrats this time and do not have to watch as another RINO destroys the Republican brand. Another big difference is …….. Secretary of State Lindsey Graham. That right there proves that Obama is better.
August 31st, 2011 at 9:56 am
These lines were spoken in the 1970′s…yet they are just as true now as they were then. In fact they may be more true. They pretty well sum up my feelings toward the direction this country is headed under the current administration and why I’ll vote for whoever the Republican nominee is. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yWSymjhWIeQ&feature=share
August 31st, 2011 at 10:11 am
Good point, Basil, but I don’t know about the poker analogy. They still play stud online and in Vegas – it’s even part of the World Series of Poker events. I’ll tell you what no one plays any more (or maybe ever played): draw poker. That’s how I learned to play poker back in middle school when we were playing for candy. Oh, and aces, dueces, and one-eyed jacks were wild. It was not unusual to see a five of a kind.
August 31st, 2011 at 10:19 am
ANY republican is better than Obama. Some democrats are better than Obama. I will push hard forthe most conservative freedom loving candidate of the group, and support whomever the candidate is. Obama and co. are killing this country.
Reagan / Cheney 2012 !!!
August 31st, 2011 at 10:23 am
By the way, most excellant post Basil. And we reed Reagan / Cheney about now. Sigh.
August 31st, 2011 at 11:42 am
Basil you hit the jackpot with this little column. Like Mark Levin has been saying lately on his radio show, a can or orange juice is better than Obama. I am waiting to see if anyone else enters the race in the next month or so. Then will be supportive and work for the candidate I like best – but any Republican is better than Obama and I WILL VOTE FOR THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE. Great post Basil.
August 31st, 2011 at 12:43 pm
Basil,
I rarely disagree with you, but I must on this point. Absolutely, at the end of the day we will vote for a Republican over Barack Hussein, no matter how awful…HOWEVER, in poker you also don’t show your cards and should have a poker face (no GaGa reference intended). If the message is sent to the RINO Republican leadership that we’re prepared to line up to vote for whomever they force upon us, they will continue to force RINO’s on us and take our votes for granted while trying to “reach out” to “moderates” with their policies and candidates.
At this point in the negotiation, EVERY Republican should insist that we will ONLY vote if we get a conservative candidate!
August 31st, 2011 at 12:53 pm
But RON PAUL!! is the ONLY one who can save the Republic from the New World Order! ALL the other candidates are BABY-EATING FREEMASONS who also eat the wrong kind of jam on their toast.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:49 pm
I am so sick and tired of having to choose the lesser of two evils. I quit supporting the republicans long ago. I no longer send them a dime, even if I have to hold my nose and vote for one once in a while. They always seem to shove doucheabaggies like bush and mccain down our throats. The republican primary rules allowed the marxists to choose our candidate through “new humpshere” and “iowa”. If a state is going to have an open primry, then the delegates need to be split, and if the primary is not open, then the conservative should always win. If the primary system worked right, scummybaggseses like romney wouldn’t bother to try convince us that osabamaaa care is good. We would get quality candidates that may help the country.
I heard an interesting take by a Ron Paul supporter this morning. If the repubs don’t nominate Paul, then he will vote for osabammaa. His theory was that it is better for the country to disintegrate quickly under the weight of the Klingons husband if we are not going to go back to the constitution. Which would be a good theory except, under the bucket head, we don’t get to use the mexicannon and we stuck jo-jo the biden and more algoreatory.
August 31st, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Well, I certainly notice I am educated by my last post. Spelling, grammar, and punctuation all absolutely correct!
/sarc
August 31st, 2011 at 1:57 pm
I noticed that, too. I just figured you had joined the RONPAUL!!!1!!! coalition.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:07 pm
But But but Ron Pail Ron Paul Liberty Liberty Ron Paul. He is winning every single online poll he cannot loose this time. He is the only one not owned by the Build a Bears.
/sarcasm
I would vote for a pet rock, my cat or Romney over the WON.
August 31st, 2011 at 2:09 pm
Stix’s Cat 2012!
August 31st, 2011 at 2:43 pm
Jimmy – I think Frank called you an Ace Hole…he just mis-spelled it!
August 31st, 2011 at 4:42 pm
Carter, I don’t read Ace much any more. His articles are too long, wordy and tiring.
August 31st, 2011 at 4:56 pm
I could support Perry, Romney (grudgingly), or Cain. Bachmann and Palin are out for me, as are Huntsman and Paul… though I do think Ron would be great entertainment value.
September 1st, 2011 at 12:04 am
Yeah yeah, the GOP establishment trots out this BS every four years. And every time, it’s treated like a new situation, a special case, a one-time only compromise. As if the Democrat nominee isn’t always horrible, and the Republican nominee not a big-govt “moderate”.
So in the last twenty years they’ve told us to vote for Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush, McCain, Romney/Perry (can anyone even articulate a substantive difference between those last two?). Six elections, no conservatives. F that. If they nominate a conservative, I’ll vote for him, otherwise not.
September 2nd, 2011 at 12:04 am
I used the Select Smart 2012 quiz to see who I should support.
(It’s sort of like a on-line dating service for presidential candidates.)
http://www.selectsmart.com/president/
It said I should vote for Rick Santorum because we had a 87% compatibility.
How’s he standing in the straw poles? 1.5 percent? Dang it!
(Other potential nominees I checked: Palin 77%, Perry 51% Cain 41%, BO 18%)
I have no idea how they (the website) calculate their results or what bias they may have, but it was kind of cool.
September 2nd, 2011 at 7:13 am
Yeah, it went all Santorum on me, too. 95%. Of course, the “Paid for by Santorum 2012″ at the bottom of the page should have been a dead giveaway.
I was surprised by that, though. Happy to see at the bottom of the list: Obama.