I know y’all are tired of hearing about the COVID-19 strain of Coronavirus. Me too. I mean, the H1N1 flu killed 12,469 in the U.S. alone in 2009, according to the CDC. But everybody is pissing their pants over COVID-19, which just yesterday reached 1,000 reported cases in the U.S. Not deaths. That number is 31. Total cases. Compare that to 60.8 million cases of H1N1 in the U.S. in 2009, and 274,304 hospitalizations.
So the panic is overblown, in relation to 2009. What’s different? Trump is president, not Obama.
But there is a good thing from all this weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth. The Congresscritters are so concerned about COVID-19 that Congress might adjourn.
Members plan to raise concerns with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., at their weekly leadership meeting Monday afternoon, two sources said. It’s Pelosi’s decision whether to keep the House in session or make changes in the schedule.
[Source: NBC News]
And you were worried that nothing good could come from this.
That, and the virus may put us on the cusp of the greatest superhero origin story of all time.
On a scale of 1 to 10 where 1 is no worries mate and 10 is Well, won’t have to worry about global warming anymore, I put myself at about a 3.5. Concerned, yes. Worried, not really. Panicked? No way Jose.
I see people using the “flu killed more people, so COVID-19 isn’t that serious” logic way too often.
Sure, using Basil’s numbers, 12,469 > 31. But that alone doesn’t tell us how lethal a virus is. We have to consider the number of infections, too. 60,800,000 > 1000. By a ton.
So, 12,469 deaths out of 60,800,000 infections for H1N1 in 2009. Then H1N1 killed around 0.02% of the people it infected.
31 out of 1000 for COVID-19. COVID-19 has killed around 3.1% of infected in the US (which is pretty in-line with global numbers). If H1N1 were as lethal as COVID-19 the death toll would have been closer to 190,000
In other words, COVID-19 hasn’t killed as many people as H1N1 did in 2009, but that’s because people are taking it seriously and trying to contain it so that it doesn’t infect as many people as H1N1 did in 2009.
Which would be correct, if we knew the actual number of infected people. I believe, and please correct me if I am wrong on this, confirmed infections are based on an actual test done on a person. It is quite possible, if not probable, that many more people are infected than are noted. THis should not be surprising given the lack of a test initially, rationing of testing once available and the early stages of the disease. So trying to determine a mortality rate at this point in time is still speculation. Even if it is informed speculation. Look at South Korea. Earlier start, more widespread testing. Their mortality rate is pegged at less than 1% (Without double checking on the internet, once again I may be off). So far in the US the overall numbers don’t indicate a rapid expansion and consequent deaths from the Wuhan Virus. Can that change? Yes, but basic responses of being on top of avoiding unnecessary crowds, travel and doing more intense routine hand washing and keeping surfaces clean as possible. Also avoid touching your face with your hands are reasonable precautions. Medical people prepping for increased patients makes sense as well. THe main thing is DON’T PANIC. Remain calm and don’t spread speculative rumors on “Cures” or “Prognosis”. Kind of tough to do at times but it all comes down to using a little commonsense and keeping it in perspective.
I looked into those South Korea numbers, and it does look like you’re correct. The most recent numbers I found were 3 days old, and they pegged it around .6%. Which is definitely a lot lower than 3%, but still significantly higher than .02%.
To be clear, I’m not advocating panic, and I agree that panic is what the media is pushing. I just disagree with the idea that it’s no worse than the flu or that the threat of infection and spread should be so casually dismissed. As you said, common sense and reasonable precautions.
The University of Minnesota thinks the number of cases, and in particular the number of deaths, from H1N1 in 2009 is vastly under-reported.
For example:
link