So what’s going to happen a week from Tuesday? We have polls to help us figure things out, but they’re just making things more confusing. National polls have been showing a good lead for Romney — a number even have him over 50% — but looking at the electoral votes, it doesn’t look like he’s going to win as he needs Ohio and hasn’t led in one polls there. Nate Silver at the NYT Times looks at the polls and uses numbers magic to say Obama has definitely won it, but his stuff doesn’t completely make sense (like right now he says there is a 71% chance Obama will win the popular vote even though that goes way against the national polling). But if you question Nate Silver’s methods, Paul Krugman says that will offend Science! and destroy the fabric of time and space or something. And Krugman is a very entertaining writer — in the same way it would be entertaining if you dressed up a chimpanzee as an economist and had it do a silly dance for you.
So who knows what will happen. The important thing is if you live in a swing state, make sure to help get out the vote for Republicans and do your usual methods of voter suppression to stop Democrats from voting (like dangling a bunch of shiny things near polling places to distract them). If you live in a non-swing state — like me in Idaho — you can just relax and not care. Man, it’s nice not having any pressure on you.
Oh, I spoke too soon. Romney now leads in Ohio according to Rasmussen, though according to Nate Silver’s number crunching, we’re only imagining that poll.
It would obviously be good to win Ohio, but it’s such a terrible state (see my avatar for an explanation) that maybe we shouldn’t worry about it. Romney can win without Ohio. If he wins Florida, NC, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire, all he needs is Wisconsin to win the election.
All the recent polls have Romney ahead (and getting even further ahead) in Florida, NC, and Virginia. Colorado and New Hampshire are close, but he’s been ahead (within the margin of error) those places too. And last poll I saw from Wisconsin had it 48-48.
This is a very winnable election, and everybody should be doing their best to make it happen. You can make phone calls from home, volunteer on election day, go door to door, go man a phone bank, etc. Sign up for all of these things on Romney’s website.
Let’s not have four more years of President “Makes-Carter-look-good-by-comparison” Jugears Mc****stick.
What Republican crapped in Nate Silver’s cereal? Why does he hate us?
Ernie: If you think Ohio is the worst state ever, or even a “terrible” state, then you haven’t traveled much. I don’t much care for Ohio myself, but at best and at worst it is average. It is the most average state in the union.
Lately, here in Ohio, it seems that things are shifting towards Romney. I couldn’t say that a week ago, but I am seeing more and more Romney signs, and people talking about Romney or how much they don’t like Obama. I also know for a fact that some young and stupid hipster types (people I know) that were all “Obama!” 4 years ago couldn’t seem to care less about this election. They rank going to vote up there with showing up to work on time if they have a job, or looking for a job if they don’t.
Romney will win Ohio.